Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Bowl Prediction



In Super Bowl XLV, the 6th seeded Green Bay Packers will go head-to-head with the #2 seeded Pittsburgh Steelers. The Packers are only the second 6th seed in history to ever make it to the Super Bowl while the Steelers are only two seasons removed from being the world champs. Led by two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and a shutdown defense, the Steelers head to the big game with loads of confidence. The Packers are a team mixed with play-making veterans and youngsters who are eager to pull off the big upset in Dallas. So who’s going to be holding the Lombardi trophy at days end? The Packers offense sputtered in their last game against the Bears and it was their defense led by Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews that held the Bears offense in check. If the Pack hopes to win this game, their offense led by Rodgers must be spectacular. James Starks and Brandon Jackson must also provide sparks in the running game so the offense will not become one-dimensional. Green Bay has perhaps the most talented receiving corps in the game today but they will be challenged heavily by the Steelers defense. The Black and Yellow are led by an array of highly talented stars on defense including names such as James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, Brett Kiesel and their heart and soul, Troy Polamalu. Throw into the mix Big Ben and his Super Bowl escapades and the Steelers seem to be the odds on choice. The most prolific matchup will be between the Packers offense and the Steelers defense, however the most crucial showdown will be whether the Packers D can stifle Big Ben and Rashard Mendenhall as they did the Bears two weeks ago. This matchup beckons back to Super Bowl XLIII in which the Steelers squeaked out a win against the offensive-minded Arizona Cardinals. Can they pull it off again? Lets take a closer look at the position comparisons for the teams.

QUARTERBACK: PUSH
This battle comes to Big Ben’s experience vs. the pure talent of Aaron Rodgers. Roethlisberger has already been there and done that with his two Super Bowl wins while Rodgers has been nothing less than sensational since taking over the starting gig in Green Bay. Ben is no slouch but in terms of straight ability, Rodgers has the edge. However experience in the big game is also incredibly crucial. These two advantages for each QB cancel each other out and leave this matchup a tie.

RUNNINGBACKS: STEELERS
Rashard Mendenhall is a workhorse stud of a running back that can take the ball on all snaps for the Pittsburgh offense. Green Bay sports a tandem in the backfield of James Starks, Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn. Mendenhall had more yards rushing (1273) than all three of the Packers backs combined. Green Bay has lacked stability at this position the entire season since losing 2009 leading rusher Ryan Grant early on. Clear advantage Steelers.

WIDE RECEIVERS: PACKERS
Both quarterbacks will have plenty of weapons to work with in this game on the outside. Pittsburgh stars Hines Ward and Mike Wallace cancel out Pro Bowler Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. The real competition will be between the third and fourth receivers, Emmanuel Sanders and Antwaan Randle-El for the Steelers and James Jones and Jordy Nelson for the Pack. Nelson and Jones are both highly talented guys that could easily be starters on other teams. Randle-El is a veteran and former college quarterback that could be used for trick plays while Sanders is a rookie who hasn’t done a whole lot this season. The Packers unit is just more complete and deep giving them the edge.

OFFENSIVE LINE: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE PACKERS
Neither of these the units for either team has been stellar this season. The Packers line has improved as of late but struggled two weeks ago against the Bears leading to some big hits on Rodgers. The Steelers may be without Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey, which would leave a huge gap in the center of the line. The game may come down to which of these units can perform against their respective pass rushes.

DEFENSIVE LINE: PUSH
The Steelers have experience on their side with veterans Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel, while the Pack have quickly blooming youngster BJ Raji and veteran Cullen Jenkins on the line. The Packers line will most likely be tested more with Pittsburgh’s focus on the run game and using Rashard Mendenhall.

LINEBACKERS: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE STEELERS
The Steelers have a spectacular group of linebackers led by heavy-hitter James Harrison. Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and Lamarr Woodley are also highly talented and have played in the Super Bowl prior. The Packers sport one of the league’s best pass rushers in Casey Matthews and have solid complement in A.J. Hawk. The injury to Nick Barnett detracts from the talent of the Packers unit and so the advantage must go to the experience and immense talent of the Steelers.

CORNERS: PACKERS
The Steelers have veterans Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden anchoring the outside of the defense while the Pack counter with 2009 Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson and youngster Tramon Williams. Williams has come on strong in the postseason with a crucial game-ending pick in the Wild Card round against the Eagles. Taylor and McFadden have both been on this stage before, however the sheer talent of Woodson and Williams is too much to ignore. Pack gets the point here.

SAFEITIES: STEELERS
Troy Polamalu. Enough said here. Just recently named the 2010 Defensive Player of the Year, Polamalu is a force to be reckoned with even if he isn’t at 100%. Polamalu at 50% would be good enough to start on the majority of teams in the NFL.

PREDICTION: PACKERS 24-17
Both teams sport tenacious defenses and explosive offenses. The possible loss of Maurkice Pouncey is huge as the Steelers line will be under pressure the entire afternoon. My feeling is that the pass rush will get to Big Ben causing him to make mistakes. The Packers offense will have to perform as they did against the Falcons if they hope to win. My guess is that they will and squeak this game out by a touchdown.

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