Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Prediction

The time has finally come. Only two teams are still standing after a most amazing, dramatic, heart-rending...exciting, thrilling season in recent memory. And now, we have a Super Bowl rematch between two teams that played one of the most exciting Super Bowls in recent memory four years ago. Of course, many differences exist between Super Bowl XLVI and Super Bowl XLII, but the main storylines of each game will undoubtedly be at the position that has remained the same in both games. Eli Manning is leading a hot road-warriors Giants team (again), and trying to solidify his claim of being an elite quarterback in the process. The fact that Eli has already made it to 2 big games is quite astounding. In the meantime, Tom Brady is trying to reach a higher level of greatness that only few quarterbacks share: the winner of four Super Bowls. Brady can surely thrust himself into the likes of Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach, and John Elway. Either way, both teams will be striving for that goal of being the best of the best and crushing their newly formed rival. This ain't Yankees-Red Sox, but it sure is starting to feel that bitter.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Pats come into this game with a quarterback on the pedestal of NFL greatness. Tom Brady leads his motley crew once again into the Super Bowl. It's stunning that Brady has managed to lead this team year after year into the playoffs, despite a constantly rotating roster (says something about those other AFC East teams...). Belichick-Brady may be a coach-quarterback duo that will live on for years to come in New England after they are done. A Super Bowl victory now could cement their legacy and prove that Super Bowl XLII was a flop; a minor hiccup in a historic decade of dominance. But enough gushing about Brady. What does he have to work with? Well, the running game has been off and on throughout the season, at best. Backs like Danny Woodhead, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Stevan Ridley can certainly carry the load, but their efficiency is mostly in the redzone, close to the goal line. In the air is where the magic happens. The Patriots have an unassuming combo of tight ends that are really just versatile receivers. Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski can snatch the ball out of the air as well as anyone, and provide good exploitations for the Pats' passing game between the hashmarks. Wideouts Deion Branch and Wes Welker are also threats on the outside, while contributors like Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater can provide more mix-and-match combinations both short and deep. The O-line for the Pats have been shaky at times, but the return of Sebastian Vollmer should certainly help. Key "injuries" on the offensive front include Matt Light and Rob Gronkowski, who both serve vital roles in this offense. Light's health will be extremely valuable considering the pass rush by the Giants' D-line.

On defense, this team has managed to find meaning in their line, led by the athletic, gut-busting Vince Wilfork. The linebackers have also stepped up as of late, led by former Gator Brandon Spikes in the middle. Overall, this defense is solid. The only question about it is the secondary. The corners for the Patriots have been up and down throughout the season, but have come on late to form a respectable bunch. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and company can all be playmakers, while players like James Ihedigbo and (snicker) Julian Edelman can be counted on for support. What should be particularly intriguing is the play of Devin McCourty, who can roam the field as good as anyone and catch up to the play. For this team to stay in the game, they must rely on their defensive unit to stop Brandon Jacobs and company on the ground, and the elusive Eli Manning and his merrymen of receivers in the air. If the Patriots defense can step up in the biggest game of their lives, the offense will handle the rest.

Special teams-wise, the Pats still rely on ol' Stephen Gostkowski, who has successfully replaced Adam Vinatieri. Zoltan Mesko continues to reliably handle punting duties, while Woodhead and Edelman are the returners.


NEW YORK GIANTS
The kings of New York return to the Super Bowl in quest of a title against an old foe. If New York can get the win, Tom Coughlin could be right up there with Bill Parcells as one of the greatest Giants coaches to ever live. And then if that's not a question of legacy, just look at who's under center. Eli Manning is only 31, but has tremendously rebounded from his tumultuous past. Once cast behind his brother Peyton and father Archie, "Little Bro" now has the chance to create his own chapter in Giants history. Of course, Manning is not alone on his quest. His receivers should get just as much play, despite Manning's effectiveness in the pocket. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham all bring great hands, tremendous speed, and excellent route running to the table. With no true safety blankets underneath, Manning can exploit long passes on many plays. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw can still ground and pound, but the instability of the offensive line may cause the running game to experience a few problems.

Of course, the story of this Giants team is the hot, tough D. Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul are the bookends up front, with Chris Canty and Osi Umenyiora providing excellent support pressure. The Giants rely on the linebacking duties of Chase Blackburn, Michael Boley, and Mathias Kiwanuka, who are not only good in run stopping abilities, but also thrive on the pass coverage. Of course, the Giants secondary provides support on the backside with Corey Webster, Antrel Rolle, Kenny Philips, and Aaron Ross (and a slew of reliable backups). The Giants' flaw on their defense is probably the hole between the linebackers and the safeties, which the Packers and 49ers managed to exploit (unfortunately sloppy play from those teams resulted in more outside routes). The Giants will have to watch Tom Brady and company carefully, especially the tight ends who can easily chew up yardage between the hashmarks.

On special teams, the Giants have kicker Lawrence Tynes and punter Steve Weatherford. Tynes may have a weak leg, but he is still one of the more clutch kickers in the league today. Weatherford doesn't have much control of his punts sometimes, but he can still kick bombs. The returners are a carousel of Jerrel Jernigan, Will Blackmon, Aaron Ross, and Devin Thomas. After the NFC Championship Game, it will be interesting to see how the Giants attack and perform on punt return duties.

PREDICTION:
NEW ENGLAND 27, NEW YORK 24
Overall this is a very tough, physical matchup. Both teams have solid offenses and rising defenses. Like everyone else, I think this one will come down to a few key special teams plays. The Giants may be the hottest team right now, but something tells me to not forget about Tom Brady. Whoever jumps out to a big early lead will win, as these defenses will definitely get tired. And in that case, the offense with more firepower will win. The Pats have just enough to pull this one out, but the Giants surely won't take it easy. Either way, the tagline of Super Bowl XLII still resonates loudly, begging the question: "Who Wants It More?"

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